In the March 1 episode, Y’all-itics joins forces with Inside Texas Politics and we cut through the primary noise with two political insiders who discuss what they’re really seeing in the marquee races and what you need to know if you haven’t already voted early. Dallas Council Member Chad West updates the city’s effort to keep the NHL team in Dallas. And our roundtable on what to make of the early voting turnout.
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Straight ahead, closing in on election day, the latest polls on the biggest races, who's up, who's slipping, and what it might mean for turnout Tuesday. What are the insiders though really seeing? A veteran Democrat and veteran Republican go head to head over the runoff map and whether the fallout might reshape November.
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Dallas leaders now moving ahead this week to look at options to move City Hall, but what's the rush? Councilman Chad West tells us why this is moving so fast, and he reveals new details about the city's effort to keep the NHL in Dallas. And presidents always paint a rosy picture in State of the Union speeches, but the Dallas Fed forecast challenges ahead on the economy, inflation, and jobs.
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Inside Texas Politics with Jason Whitely starts now.
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Thank you for being here. The countdown is on to the primary election, and we begin with the latest polls in the biggest races. Starting with the Republican race for US Senate. Ken Paxton narrowly leads John Cornyn, but Wesley Hunt is rising here. And if you factor in the margin of error from this UT Austin poll, it shows. This could be a 3-way race. Now to the Democratic side. Jasmine Crockett 12 points ahead of James Tallarico in this survey.
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One note though, this poll does not include any of the attention that Talarico got after that Colbert interview that CBS reportedly pulled from air. Still though, factor in the margin of error, and this race does remain very close. Now to the Republican race for Texas attorney general. It's clearly heading for a runoff. Chip Roy maintaining his lead here. Mays Middleton close behind both of the candidates with the most money in this race so far. And on the Democratic side, the numbers surprised us here.
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Former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski above 50%. State Senator Nathan Johnson from Dallas at 28%. All of these polls taken in the first two weeks of February, and of course polls only show a snapshot in time. Closing in on the election though, let's cut through the noise here with two insiders who live this stuff every day. What are they really seeing in the marquee races?
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We devoted an entire episode of Y'all-itics to a blunt no spin showdown, a veteran Democrat versus a veteran Republican. They're looking at Tuesday's biggest races, the runoff math, and whether the aftershocks might reshape November. Matt Engel and Vinny Minillo. Start us off with a high stakes Republican primary for Texas attorney General. Aaron
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Wright is an interesting character because when he came out onto the scene, he came out with a lot of buzz in Austin, but that campaign's kind of failed to launch really in a lot of ways, hasn't really raised the money and hasn't really got the attention. So and he had Paxton's endorsement there even with Paxton's endorsement. So you know we'll see what the value of that is in this race, but I think this just goes according to the plan. This goes to a runoff. And this is the guys with the most name ID and the guys with the most money. It's Chip Roy and Maga Mays Middleton.
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But Chip Roy has been one of those Republicans, those rare Republicans who stood up to President Trump. Does that, would that anger any of the MAGA base at all? Well,
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certainly Middleton is taking him to task, so he's punching him in the face for that. We'll see. Roy's a tough guy, and I think he can, he can make that work to his favor. But in the runoff, you know, the, the race will be very different in the runoff. Uh, no one's going to get probably more than 35% and get themselves into the runoff, so it's all going to become a turnout race, really not a messaging race there.
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And same question for you, Matt, on, on this one before we talk about the Democrats running for this position here. This is a competitive and combative race is how we described it in inside Texas politics on the Republican side. Yeah,
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absolutely, and I like that they're going after. Each other and you know I like if they've got a nominee whose first name is Maga that helps us. Uh, also, you know, Chip Roy doesn't really make me sweat too much. This whole thing about standing up to Donald Trump. Well, in the end he always caves, you know, they call Trump Taco. He's kind of choco. Uh, Chip always chickens out and, uh, just on, on
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choco and taco. That's the first I'd heard that.
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I love rolling eyes.
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I'm gonna workshop that one a little
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bit. Well, you know, you don't workshop the truth, and the truth of the matter is that over and over again Chip Roy blusters, throws up his hands, and said, I'm not going to stand for it, and then just votes along with Trump on everything.
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Why haven't the Democrats running for this, Nathan Johnson, state senator from Dallas, Joe Jaworski, former mayor of Galveston, Texas. None of them have really seemed to have caught some traction or momentum. There's what, 40% still undecided in this race.
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What's going on? Well, they've got the audacity of running as lawyers and, uh, uh, rather than as personalities, and as a result, they haven't gotten a lot of traction, although I would expect based on him having a base in a Senate district and coming to North Texas that uh that Nathan Johnson will run first. They'll be in a runoff, and, uh, and then we'll.
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See what happens from there and also the, the governor's race, uh, or excuse me, the Senate race and some of the other races kind of taken the auction out, uh, for them, but, uh, but both, uh, Nathan Johnson and Jaworski are very capable people, and, uh, I think if they can get into a fall election they can run a good race, particularly if you've got Maga Mays Milton Middleton or, uh, uh, or, or Chip Roy running.
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You know, one of these races that we don't often really dig too deep down into is for Texas comptroller. I think a lot of people probably aren't totally really sure what a comptroller even does here in Texas. The
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comptroller is the CFO, the chief financial officer for the state, state's treasurer maybe, but yeah, it's one of those weird
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names. Doesn't usually get a lot of attention either.
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It doesn't, but, but this time I, I, I think the primary race is, especially in the Republican. Side is getting a lot of attention because there are names in there that people know. Don Huffines, a former state senator from Dallas, uh, Christie Craddock, railroad commissioner, and Kelly Hancock, the acting comptroller right now, former state senator, is a former state senator from
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Tarrant County who, who has, by the way, uh, Vinnie, the endorsement of Governor Abbott here in Texas, and yet in, in polling, he's, he's running, uh, way behind.
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Yes, he is, and, and I mean you've got Huff Heinz who spent a lot of money to be, to, to run for comptroller, a job most people have never heard of and don't know what it, what it is. So we're going to see. I think we're going to see the Greg Abbott roadshow, and I think we're going to see him open up the checking account and spend on. Half of Hancock,
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the days are winding down though. So you're thinking this goes to a runoff and that's where we see the money being
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spent 100% goes to a runoff. So it's a matter of who gets in with Huffines. So you know, Christie Craddock has got to be looking in her rearview mirror right now and
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If the polling is accurate and, and the acting comptroller Kelly Hancock really is in 3rd place here, what does it say about the governor? And, and, and his. You know, bets here and
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the value of that endorsement, you know, because I mean last cycle there was nothing better than an endorsement from, from Abbott. Has, has the luster gone off that? We'll see.
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Here's something that strikes me. Why is there so much competition, as Jason said, too, for a position no one really knows outside of politics? Is this a
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stepping stone to do with control. This is, I'm, I'm lining up to go run for governor. That, that's, that's what this job is, stepping stone
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job. That's just a snippet of our Y'all voter guide. If you did not vote early, you can go listen to this episode before Tuesday's election. It's available to download wherever you get your podcasts, or you can watch it like we just did there for free on our streaming app that you can download there on your smart TV. All right, let's bring in the round table to talk about the politics of Tuesday's big election. Bud Kennedy is here from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
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Natalie Haddad, political reporter at WFAA in Dallas, and Ashley Goode, managing editor of politics, director of politics at KVUE in Austin. Bud, let's start with you. Everyone is watching the US Senate race. This has now gotten attention. From all the big cable news networks that are watching this Politico, The Hill, everyone else here, what's the main thing to watch on Tuesday night? Well,
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they're all telling the story and the national reporters are all getting it wrong. They're all trying to portray it as Obama against Bedo in some sort of Texas throwdown with the same kind of turnout. But you know, really, if you dig down, Crockett is a little more moderate than Talarico on some things. Talarico is more than more of a progressive. Don't believe these polls. At all. You can't poll Democrats. Don't believe the poll in the Senate race. Don't believe that poll in the Attorney General's race.
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I think that Talarico has pulled ahead since the appearance, and we've had a Democratic consultant poll since then showing that he's ahead by more than 10 points. So do not believe any of the polls and don't believe any reporters from outside Texas.
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And you know, some of those reporters from outside Texas, Natalie, I keep hearing, and I only hear this every 68, 10 years or so, but they're like, oh, could Texas now turn blue? Are these the candidates that might turn Texas blue? Getting elected to the Senate for the first time since 1988 for a Democrat here, they're getting way ahead of themselves.
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I think you've, you, you got it right. I think anyone from outside Texas might be hopeful maybe that this is more of a purple state, but I think that Texas is still quite red, you know, to Bud's point. I don't think we should be trusting or putting all of our eggs into one basket when it comes to any one poll. We have seen these numbers fluctuate big time from the University of Houston earlier this month to now this UT poll, and I do think that at the end of the day this is still a bleeding red state.
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And to the woman in red now, the lady in red, Ashley. Uh, talk about the big surprises that could happen on, on Tuesday night here because there are some that people are talking about Ken Paxton or James Talarico, John Corner, even Wesley Hunt in that poll we mentioned a moment ago, a moment ago at the beginning of the program here.
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Sure. Sure, I think Wesley Hunt becoming a little bit more of a contender than anyone thought is really, really big. What started as what people saw as a two-man race right between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton is really a three-way race. There's no way you cannot say that West. Congressman Wesley Hunt is not in this race. He's in the race and so is he gonna be enough in the race though to be into the runoff?
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I think that would shock a lot of people, um, if we're talking about what would be surprising, you know, we talked about this when we were first talking about the Democrats running for Senate. And we talked about before uh Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett even got in the race that we all thought everyone across the board thought she would easily win this, uh, come election day. I think it's gonna be a little tighter. I don't think it's gonna be a landslide, but I think if State Representative James Talarico is able to pull out a win, that's a.
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Huge shock for people, um, because poll after poll after poll, yes, polling is flawed, but poll after poll after poll shows her with a sizable lead, so that would be a big surprise. The attorney general's race, um, I mean, I think we all know it's going to a runoff early on. I know that Congressman Chip Roy thought he'd be able to win it outright. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think we're definitely going to see a runoff. Um, Mays Middleton spent a lot of money and it's paying off.
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He, he is spending a lot of money, but at the end of the day, like, like Ashley said, he, he's getting something for that. It looks like he's going to make the runoff here. But as far as surprises go, what, what else besides Talarico should we be watching for on, on Tuesday? Well, you know,
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one of the big surprises could be if Paxton wins by. 8, 10 points. I mean, you know, John Cornyn has been waiting for Donald Trump to bail him out to pick him back up. The polls show that that endorsement would be worth 10 points to John Cornyn, but it hasn't come yet. You know, some of the support could be drifting to Paxton.
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Yes, I can't wait to see what happens here in the next 48 hours or so, guys. Back to you in just a moment here. We have a lot more ahead, including this. When we come back here, the pressure is on at Dallas City Hall. What it's going to take to keep the NHL in Dallas. Councilman Chad West on what's happening right now behind closed doors and why the future of City Hall itself is on the fast track. Inside Texas politics back in a moment.
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Welcome back to Inside Texas Politics. Pressure is on at Dallas City Hall. Plano is said to have formally made an offer to move the Dallas Stars to Collin County. Plano denies that that happened. And the Dallas Stars had no comment, but Dallas Councilman Chad West revealed that to us as City council itself is trying to decide the future of Dallas City Hall. Councilman, good to see you again here.
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Glad to be here as always.
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Your committee voted unanimously to start looking at options for places to move Dallas City Hall for the city manager's office to do this here. Do you think the votes exist today to actually move City Hall?
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No, absolutely not. We, we voted like you said to go look at options and look at costs that are out there for us to move. We don't have the full financial picture yet and myself and I know at least a few others have said we can't make a final determination on. Whether we're gonna stay and renovate or whether we're gonna go until we understand the costs that are out there in the market for us to move,
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is the real estate market the potential to sell the City Hall property, you know, a prime piece of property downtown, the potential to make a buck, is that what's driving all this?
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I think that's, that's the question I get all the time and that I, I probably my first question in, in asking the city manager this, and, and it really goes back to like what's the rush.
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What is the rush?
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The rush is really mostly tied to the convention center. The convention center is undergoing the master plan right now, and we need to know if City Hall is going to stay, then it needs to be designed around City Hall. If City Hall is going to leave, then a.
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Complete different design on that eastern portion of the convention center could ensue, so it really it's going to dictate a lot of the development opportunities um that could happen at the convention center and it's important to make that decision pretty soon. I mean I'm already having community meetings about which way.
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The Jefferson and Houston viaducts connect my district to downtown because that design is ongoing uh for access to downtown through the convention center or under the convention center around the convention center and the convention center is going to be designed with that in mind. Same happens with City Hall. We've got to make that determination pretty soon,
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but City Hall is not connected to the convention center. I mean, theoretically you could do these projects separately, couldn't you?
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City Hall is actually connected to convention. Is it really underground? Underground it is, and, uh, but you could
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still do these separately if you had to.
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I think it could be, but it would be a huge miss if, if the government decided, uh, City Hall decided to move 5 years from now. Let's say we slow roll this down, we move 55 years from now. This is, you know, 1314 acres of developable land, plus you've got your plaza out front which is, you know, parkland that we want to keep. How, how could we miss that opportunity? I think it would be a huge, uh. I think it'd be a big financial mess for us to, to not take advantage of doing the master planning all at once.
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Let me ask you about the Dallas Stars here briefly. The hockey team, there's been a lot of talk about whether, you know, the hockey team might move to Plano. Dallas City Hall. Kim Tolbert, the city manager, says we don't want that to happen. We're gonna try to figure this out. Where do things stand here because everyone, you know, every hockey fan and the team itself want to get this figured out.
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My understanding, and I'm not at the negotiation table for the city, none of us on council. um, is that there is a letter of intent that's been presented by Plano to the Stars. The Stars have that. They haven't signed anything. They're in negotiations with the city for how the American Airlines Center could be converted, um, into a Stars only arena.
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That ups the stakes for the city of Dallas though if there's a letter of intent on the table from Plano, doesn't it?
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I mean, it's, it's all part of doing business. I mean, the stars are, uh, they want the best deal for themselves, and I don't blame them for going out and getting it. Uh, but at the end of the day they're the Dallas Stars, and we need to do what we can to keep them in Dallas, and they'll, they'll never change their name to the Plano Stars. I don't know why they would even consider that.
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Kelman, good to see you. Yeah,
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thank you. Appreciate you
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having me. Plano does deny that that happened, but a lot to talk about with Tuesday's elections coming up. The roundtable is ready when we come back.
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This is Inside Texas Politics with Jason Whitely.
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All right, time now for reporters roundtable to put the headlines in perspective. Uh, Bud, Ashley, Natalie all back with us here. Bud, let's start with you. Presidents always paint a rosy picture despite who's in office about, uh, their term in office, but the Dallas Federal Reserve just last week puts out this new report about the Texas economy and, and says there are headwinds that this economy is facing here when it comes to the job market, when it comes to the labor market, etc. Is that going to impact Republicans as we go in towards November?
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Well, you know, the state of the. Union unfortunately now is all about glorifying partisan politics and not about glorifying the country, although they did bring in the sports heroes, the Coast Guard hero, a lot of people that really made you feel good about the nation, you know, any change in the economy, the Democrats are turning out and voting and as Ted Cruz used to say, crawling over broken glass right now to vote because of the economy. Any change in the economy is going to further damage the Republicans.
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And let's talk about somebody we saw in the State of the Union, Ashley. That was Houston Congressman Al Green, Democrat from Houston, holding up the sign says black people are aren't apes, I believe it's what he had, uh, holding there.
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He's in a potentially tight race with the, uh, former county attorney in Harris County Christian Menefee, and, and this is an interesting race because it's Al Green who's an older Democrat versus the next generation with Christian Menefee that this, this is kind of what you guys saw happen in uh in Austin with Lloyd Doggett.
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Yeah, now Congressman Christian Menefee, right, I think what we saw with, uh, Congressman Doggett and Congressman Greg Casar is, you know, because of the redistricting effort they were put into the same district. Austin now just kind of has one main Austin area and the other one goes way, way away from Austin. And, you know, I think Congressman Doggett said I've served my time. I'm gonna let the next generation really step up even though I do believe I have more time to give. Congressman Al Green didn't really say that, right?
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He Still wants to be in Congress and so that's uh something that I see this idea of the younger generation versus the older generation playing out not just on the Democrat side but on the Republican side too. I mean we've all talked to Wesley Hunt and he says it point blank and period he calls Senator Cornyn and Attorney General Paxton old, right? He says like they're one is collecting Social Security, one is gonna be collecting Social Security, and the next generation needs to step up and you know I think you're gonna see that play out on.
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Both sides during this primary. Yes, and
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I wonder, Natalie, does that, does that blunt turnout or does it, does it motivate turnout from younger voters who don't show up as much as older voters do?
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I think early voting numbers is already an indicator that we are seeing many more voters come out. So I would like to think that this is going to be a motivation for younger voters to come up, and I believe the numbers already show that as we are now, you know, at the end of early voting. Yes,
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and at the end of early voting here, Bud, you know, much has been made about the. Democratic turnout here, they haven't shown up like this in a number of years. But does it even matter because these are primary elections that Democrats are showing up more in March than they have in years past?
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There is a tremendous Democratic turnout by voters who usually only vote in the general elections. They're turning out to vote in this primary, probably in the Senate race, and by the way, there are almost no young people, you know, 2% of the primary votes young people. It's mostly people who only vote in the general election. Democrats are getting a huge turnout. Republicans are getting a very good turnout, uh, you know, considering that a lot of their elections, uh, will really delay until May. Jason, we'll be talking about comptroller for 3 more months.
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Yes, indeed. So. And same question to you, uh, Ashley, and by the way, I'm reminded that you're not wearing a red dress, you're wearing an orange dress. Our monitor here shows that it's red, so my apologies there. Um, but, but let's talk about just for a moment here. Does it matter that Texas Democrats are showing up in force for the primary election?
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Well, look, they don't show up in force for the general, do they? So you have to not just throw it to the side and say that it means nothing. I think it speaks to voter motivation. I think it speaks to the times. There are a lot of things happening in this state and in this country that are motivating people to get up and to go vote, um, and I think that people see a lot.
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Of things at stake in the race between Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state Representative James Talarico, people feel very strongly about the ability of one of them being able to win, uh, and perhaps flip a seat in the Senate, and so they wanna make sure that their voices are heard. I don't think that you can downplay that. I don't think that you can say. And just write it off as it doesn't matter. I think it matters. I think folks are motivated.
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Yeah, and then the question at the end of the day, I guess is will that motivation continue depending on who wins the primary elections for the Democrats and for the Republicans as well. Guys, thanks so much for the, uh, input and the insight. We appreciate it as always and thank you for watching as well. We're back next Sunday to take you inside Texas politics. We hope to see you then.
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Take care.